‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Stock.

People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an Indian city
People queue up to buy LPG tanks for household consumption in Chennai.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the south. People are switching to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

A closed restaurant shutter in an Indian city
A restaurant in a southern city which has ceased operations due to a scarcity of cooking gas.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the description reads.

An oil tanker at sea representing imports
India imports up to a vast majority of the oil it uses, leaving it highly exposed to disruptions in global supplies.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.

Heather Patterson
Heather Patterson

Elara is a passionate storyteller with a background in creative writing, known for crafting immersive tales that resonate with diverse audiences.