Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Figures

The mean number of daily murders per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new administrative statistics. But, security specialists have advised that homicide numbers could fail to point to enhanced national stability.

Notable Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when the President took the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these months is very notable,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the least amount of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

However, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily homicides was also problematic because it could mask periods when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst remarked.