Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
